Financial Analyst İslam Memiş, in his comprehensive speech at the POYD Traditional Lunch, made striking observations regarding the future of the sector, from financial uncertainty to the gold and silver markets, from wage parity to capital structure. Describing 2024 as a year of "turnover but no profit," Memiş emphasized the importance of strategic partnership and structural resilience on the road to 2030.

The traditional April lunch of the Professional Hotel Managers Association (POYD) brought together the leading names in the sector. While POYD President Hakan Saatçioğlu made the opening speech of the meeting, Financial Analyst İslam Memiş, who participated in the meeting as a speaker, made striking economic predictions for 2025. Emphasizing that the impact of geopolitical tensions and inflation is deepening, Memiş said, "We now see more clearly that we cannot only move forward with trade. The greatest power of nations is knowledge and strong communication."

"Accurate information should be combined with strong foresight"

In his opening speech, POYD President Hakan Saatçioğlu expressed his evaluations regarding the sector with the following words:

"Our prices have reached a certain point abroad. Considering the economic difficulties in the world, guests will prefer more affordable markets. The most accurate way to reduce our concerns is to come together with people who have strong foresight. That's why I thank İslam Memiş, who is with us today."

"Uncertainty prevails in the new world order"

Starting his speech by drawing attention to the fragilities in the world economy, İslam Memiş made the following assessment, saying, "We are now living in an unpredictable world":

"It is difficult to predict what we will encounter when we wake up in the morning. Will trade wars expand, will a natural disaster occur, or will geopolitical risks increase? Only God knows these... maybe Trump too. This uncertainty deepens even more in countries like Turkey, which are at the center of geopolitical risks."

"Even technical analyses are no longer sufficient"

Stating that the developments in recent months have rendered market analyses ineffective, Memiş said, "Logic and technical analysis can sometimes be insufficient. At this point, focusing on work and earnings every morning, questioning how you can increase your income against inflationary pressure has become much more important."

"Global balances are changing"

Referring to the impact of US President Donald Trump on the global economy, İslam Memiş emphasized that policies aimed at protecting the American economy should be followed carefully:

"Moves such as bursting the bubble in the US stock markets and deliberately weakening the dollar are harbingers of new economic balances. If Fed Chairman Powell shows resistance to interest rate cuts, a crisis may occur, but I think Trump will get what he wants. Because the capital power behind him is focused on long-term US interests."

"The stock market is rising, but the basic question is: Where is the real gain?"

In his speech, Financial Analyst İslam Memiş, referring to the rise in capital markets, addressed investors with a striking question:

"Yes, the stock market is rising, indices are being talked about. But there is a fundamental question we need to stop and ask: If this hotel, this business itself is not making money today, why should I go and buy shares of this company? The essence of investment is productivity. The real gain comes from the value produced by the business. The stock market should only be a reflection of this value."

"Access to gold is becoming difficult, mistrust is increasing"

Evaluating the recent decisions regarding gold imports, Memiş stated that these moves have created negative effects on investor confidence:

"In Turkey, this year, 5,000 dollars more was paid for one kilogram of gold compared to the world price. This is not only a price difference, but also an indication of distrust in the policy. Moreover, the production of 0.25 gram and half gram gold was banned, followed by a ban on drawn-lined gold. This shows a direction. And this direction means loss of confidence."

Stating that states do not like physical assets, Memiş said, "Physical assets are uncontrolled, independent. Therefore, systems always prefer digitalization and recording. But the more it is banned, the more people tend to go in that direction."

"The lack of institutional trust is deepening"

Emphasizing that trust in institutions such as TÜİK and the Central Bank has been damaged, İslam Memiş said, "An institution announces data, but citizens laugh at it. This is no longer a technical issue, but a reputation crisis. Without trust, there can be neither investment nor stability. The bond between the state and the citizen should be established with trust, not with laws."

"The backbone of the economy is the people who produce"

Emphasizing that all economic instruments are important at a technical level, but the real value lies in the people who produce, Memiş continued his speech with the following words:

"The stock market, exchange rates, interest rates… they are all tools. But the foundation of the economy is entrepreneurs who produce, take risks, and create jobs. You cannot move forward with just bans or interest rate policies without supporting them."

"Gold is this century's strategic gem"

Memiş, stating that gold is not only an investment tool but also a strategic metal, shared the following predictions for the upcoming period: "It is predicted that gold production will significantly decrease after 2050 due to the climate crisis and resource constraints. This is why central banks are frantically collecting gold today. Apart from the US's 8,133 tons of reserves, I estimate that Turkey has over 5,000 tons of gold under the mattress in addition to its official reserve of 615 tons."

"Geopolitical risks are increasing, gold will continue to be a safe haven"

İslam Memiş, stating that he expects geopolitical risks to increase significantly in the second half of 2024, stated that gold could rise to $3,500 per ounce and gram gold to 6,000 TL: "At the beginning of the year, I gave a target of $3,500 for ounce gold and 4,500 TL for gram gold. Only four and a half months have passed and we are very close to these levels. This is an indicator of the suppressed movement in the market."

"Think with gold, calculate with gold"

Memiş, offering concrete suggestions to the companies and individuals he provides financial consulting to, concluded his words with the following call: "If you have unofficial accounts, stocks, or operations; cost them in gold, stock them in gold, move with gold, not with foreign currency. Because gold is the strategic gem of not only this period but also this century."

New Era in Gold and Silver: 24/7 Physical Access Era Begins

Financial Analyst İslam Memiş, in his evaluation of digital finance solutions at the POYD Meeting, emphasized that access to gold and silver transactions is now possible at any time of the day. "Now, even if it is 12 at night or 3 in the morning, you can access your physical assets. Because robot safes are in operation. This system has been actively working and spreading, especially in big cities, for 7 years," he said.

Criticism to Banks: "High Spreads are a Matter of Trust"

Memiş, drawing attention to the high spread margins applied by banks in gold and silver trading, said, "I warned repeatedly, I wanted this abuse to be prevented. However, no solution was produced. I didn't stand idle either and we developed the ERP Platform." ERP stands out as a digital platform implemented in cooperation with Istanbul Gold Refinery and integrated into the Tahtakale market. Memiş emphasized that thanks to this system, citizens will be able to trade 24/7 through the application they will download to their mobile phones, and physical delivery is completely free.

What is the ERP Platform?

ERP (Electronic Refinery Platform) is defined as a safe and transparent gold-silver trading network that operates through a transaction infrastructure established in the Istanbul - Ankara - Rize triangle and is directly connected to the tahtakale market. "Remember the times when buying and selling was done with 100-200 TL spreads in banks. This is not just a technical problem, but also a matter of justice," said Memiş, announcing that the system will be widespread throughout Turkey.

Drew Attention to the Gold-Silver Ratio

Touching on a noteworthy issue in gold and silver investment, Memiş called on investors to follow the gold-silver ratio: "Today, 1 kilogram of gold is equivalent to 100 kilograms of silver. This ratio is very high. In 2024, gram gold provided a return of 50% and gram silver 52%. Silver is not only an investment, but also strategically very valuable in the medicine, solar panel and advanced technology sectors." Memiş stated that it is possible to obtain risk-free profit through silver as the ratio decreases, and said, "You buy 100 kilos of silver with 1 kilogram of gold. If the ratio drops to 90, you will have 10 kilos of silver profit. With this exchange system, profit can be made without risking money."

New Trend in Housing: 1+0 and 1+1 Apartments

İslam Memiş also drew attention to the housing sector after his financial evaluations. Noting that increasing divorce rates and solo living preferences have increased the interest in 1+1 and 1+0 apartments, Memiş said, "TOKİ has now started producing 1+1 apartments. This shows the changing structure of society. Those who did not like 3+1 are now content with 1+1 because living conditions have changed." Expressing that he still believes that housing is an investment tool, Memiş said, "If you do not have a passive income that will cover your family's expenses today, you are poor even if you have money. Owning a house is an important guarantee not only for shelter but also for sustainability."

"Did the Crypto Market Explode or Rise?"

Memiş's Bull Season Prediction for September-October Touching on the cryptocurrency market, Economist İslam Memiş made striking statements, drawing attention to the recent fluctuations. "They said crypto was dead, it went to $75,000. Not enough, we said 85,000, now it's being talked about from $109,000. But there was so much gas given on social media, screens and influencer videos that... they shouted 'Come be rich, be smart, be a man'. And what happened? It exploded again," he said. For the altcoin side, Memiş stated that he expects a bull market in September–October, and underlined that this period will not be a period where everyone wins. “It is no longer enough to just have information in the crypto market; the one who can manage the information wins. Artificial intelligence and algorithmic systems are much faster than us. The future will be shaped more by the power of the system than by human power,” he said.

“My New Book: Between Existence and Non-Existence”

At the end of his speech, Memiş also mentioned his personal projects and introduced his new book *‘Between Existence and Non-Existence’* to the audience. Stating that it offers a roadmap not only about money but also about meaning, value, and direction, Memiş said, “This book is like a code; friends who want it can get it.”

In addition, Memiş shared that he is preparing a savings book for primary school level to raise financial awareness among children, and concluded his words by saying, “We are distributing this book free of charge throughout Turkey. Because while the system is changing, we also need to invest in children.”

“My job is not just to tell, but to produce. Maybe a sentence I say will take root in your life.”

“Access to Finance, Parity Problem, and the Reality of Capital”

In this part of his speech to POYD members, Financial Analyst İslam Memiş drew attention to the difficulties experienced by the tourism sector in accessing finance and systemic imbalances. Memiş stated that many competing countries in Europe have easier access to grants, incentives, and sustainable financing resources, while in Turkey, access to these resources is either very late or they have to settle for weak support in terms of quality.

This situation directly affects not only investors but also professional managers in the sector. Memiş explained this situation with the following words:

“The minimum wage should of course be increased for social justice, but the salary difference between it and middle-level managers has eroded significantly. The improvement at the bottom is causing a collapse in the middle. However, if the middle class collapses, not only the base but the entire structure will be shaken. We must maintain this balance to maintain sustainable quality in tourism.”

“Global Capital Is Changing Hands”

In the continuation of his speech, Memiş drew attention to another transformation taking place on a global scale: capital is changing hands. He stated that this change is accelerating not only through economic means but also through crises such as geopolitical and natural disasters. Emphasizing that the system is focused on “control” rather than production, Memiş said, “Capital is now being directed and access to these resources is being seriously controlled.”

Evaluating the investment environment in Turkey, Memiş stated that despite the support announcements of the state and relevant ministries, access on the ground remains very limited and said:

“Will the credit taps be opened, and if so, to whom and how much? There is no clear picture yet. My personal prediction is that the Turkish economy will be in a recovery process until the middle of 2026. Therefore, we must increase our individual and corporate resilience.”

“No Real Solution Will Come Without a Change in Model”

Memiş believes that the solution is possible not only with credit support but also with a change of mindset. Emphasizing that the real impact of most of the credit packages announced in Turkey does not even reach 20%, Memiş drew attention to the importance of structural and corporate collaborations at this point:

“Every company should have a plan B. You cannot only move forward with credit. The real solution lies in strong communication, permanent support mechanisms, and structural foundations that sector representatives will create by coming together.”

“Towards 2030: Strategic Growth is Essential, Not Alone”

In his assessments about the future, Memiş stated that 2030 will be a threshold year economically and politically. Stating that many investors in Turkey still act with the reflex of “let’s not take a partner,” Memiş said that this perspective should change:

“Growing with individual capital is no longer enough. Correct foreign partnerships, know-how transfers, and long-term collaborations will be the most valuable capital in this process.”

“2024: Turnover Exists, Profit Does Not”

In the closing of his speech, İslam Memiş shared a remarkable observation for 2024: “Turnover exists but there is no profit.” Explaining the reason for this situation with the suppression of the exchange rate and the permanently high inflation, Memiş said that companies are experiencing cash shortages at the end of the year. He summarized the situation with the words: “Turnover is growing, but the only thing the boss asks is: Son, where is the money?”

Memiş, who said "There are two basic elements that determine this picture; the stagnation in the exchange rate, and the excessive and permanent inflation", used the following expressions:

"We really experienced cost increases that exceeded 100% in some items, not 70-80% inflation. But we couldn't increase the price. So we just did operations. We did not make a profit.

When you don't produce financing; you cannot invest, you cannot renovate, you cannot give your staff the salary they deserve, you cannot allocate resources for education. Thus, the system also puts pressure on professionals. We are entering a vicious circle.

Exchange Rate Stagnant, Inflation Permanent

My prediction is clear, inflation is not temporary, it is permanent. Both in developed and developing countries. In Turkey, there is currently an artificial balance due to the suppressed exchange rate. When this pressure is removed, an Euro exchange rate of 50-55 in TL terms may be inevitable. Although this seems like an advantage for the tourism sector, the fact that the expense items are indexed to TL quickly erodes this advantage.

2030: A New World Threshold

Let's open a more strategic window now. My observation is that the world is heading towards a breaking point by 2030.
Economic wars, artificial intelligence, capital changing hands, the transformation of social structures... They are all moving towards a single point:
A new world order. America's unwillingness to soften towards China, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the change in direction of Middle Eastern capital... These are not just geopolitical headlines, but financial and structural threats that directly concern Turkey. So what's the solution? I have a clear proposal that I have been repeating on every platform this year: Growth models with foreign partnerships.

Turkish investors are still acting with the reflex of "let's not take partners". But now the shape of trade, capital, and collaborations has changed. If we don't take partners, partnerships will be formed without us, and this time we will be left out of the system.

In a period when access to capital is so difficult in Turkey, the right foreign partnerships, know-how transfers, and structural marriages can protect us from both short-term crises and being caught unprepared for the world after 2030.

In conclusion, 2024 was not easy, recovery in 2025 will be limited, and real normalization seems difficult until mid-2026. But with rationally managed capital, institutionalized partnerships, and sectoral solidarity, we can be the captains who navigate out of this storm and into port."

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